Looking Ahead: Gnomes and Killington

Player	Pinnacle	Sap Bucket X	Black Falls VI	Current Total
Chris Young	90	95.83	52.94	238.77
Jeff Spring	70	41.67	94.12	205.79
Jon Moorer	40	79.17	76.47	195.64
Jonathan Betts	0	100	76.47	176.47
Mike Davies	0	87.5	76.47	163.97
Matt Idol	0	66.67	82.35	149.02
James Beaulieu	90	54.17	0	144.17
Mike Habets	100	41.67	0	141.67
James Sweat	30	62.5	47.06	139.56
Ian Thurston	70	4.17	47.06	121.23

To me, the tournament season seems pretty young.  But, we’ve got three events out of the way with seven to go.  So, I guess the points and the rankings are starting to mean something.  There are still some funky numbers out there, like players in the top six still counting scores of zero.  Things will level out eventually, but being in first place now could still mean something later.

And Circle Three has gotten into the prediction game so it’s time to keep things rolling and look ahead.  By the time of Gnomes Challenge on June 23, there will have been 21 days off since Black Falls VI.  Then 8 days after Gnomes we’ll all head to Killington for the Classic.  By July 1^st, we’ll be halfway through the season.  And then the standings will really mean something. 

Today I’ll break down the current top 10 in Pro Open.  When I list players I’ll also list their scores.  It’ll read: (Pinnacle/Sap Bucket/Black Falls//Current Total). 

1.  Chris Young (90/95.83/52.94/238.77)

Young Bucks on the top of the point series is starting to sound like old news.  And I’m not taking anything away from him, but look what he’s done to us.  We now expect him to be up top this time of year.  So far, Young has recorded two really solid scores and has one throwaway.  I like his chances right now, already grabbing 2 meaningful scores and therefore only needing 3 more good scores.  I still think he needs a 100 in there and getting it sometime in the next two events would really make his opponents scared.  Is the tournament that he’s directing the place to do it?  That kind of thing is a tall order and last year he finished fourth at Gnomes, so I’m not convinced.  Young is the reigning champ at Killington, so we could see big things there.

2.  Jeff Spring (70/41.67/94.12/205.77)

Right this second, Young has the advantage on Jeff Spring.  Where the Bucks has two 90’s, Spring’s only got one.  His score of 41.67 will be a throw away and that leaves him with one other mediocre score.  So he’s got some work to do.  But the time is near.  He too needs a 100 in order to win the division and I think he needs it soon.  In 2011, Spring took 2^nd at Gnomes to out-of-towner Joe Yaskis and was 4^th at Killington.  If we’re still going to see the Year of the Spring prediction come true, then I think Spring is in a must win situation.  At the least, he’s in need of four good scores over the next seven tournaments, and that won’t happen easily. 

 

3.  Jon Moorer (40/79.17/76.47/195.64)

Jon Moorer’s rookie Pro season is off to a solid start.  Overall, I think he’s only rocking two mediocre scores and has a throwaway, but still, he’s sitting in 3^rd place in his first season.  That’s the kind of thing that is going to encourage other players to move up, which is ultimately good for the sport.  But Jon needs to start recording some 90’s if he wants to stay up high in the standings.  Gnomes may be a tough place for him to do it, but I like his odds at Killington.  Not to mention, if he manages to walk out of the next two events with two good scores, he’ll be on very solid ground in the division.

4.  Jonathan Betts (0/100/76.47/176.47)

See, this is where it gets really interesting.  Betts is in 4^th place, but he’s only recorded two scores.  He does have the very elusive, very important 100.  If and when things get tight at the end of the season, then 100’s will separate first and second place.  And Johnny has one of those hundreds.  The 76.47 he holds is a bit mediocre, but it may play as a fifth score if he needs it to.  That means Johnny has seven more tournaments to grab three solid scores (like high 80’s or 90’s) and I think I like those odds.  Not that I’m a betting man, but if I were, I’d be thinking about laying down some Betts.  Maybe a Betts/Young exacta for the season finish.  Or how about a Betts/Young/Spring trifecta?

5.  Mike Davies (0/87.5/76.47/163.97)

Hmm.  No score, solid score, mediocre score.  I’m not sure where that leaves Mike Davies.  I like the 87.5 a lot.  The 76.47 is mediocre, or maybe a little better, so that may help him out.  But I’m not convinced yet.  I think Davies is on the fence here.  Some good scores at the next two events, if he plays them both, and we’ll be talking.  Otherwise, I think Mike is in danger of falling out of the top 10.    

6.  Matt Idol (0/66.67/82.35/149.02)

Earlier this year I thought Matt Idol was going to roll into town and save Vermont from an out-of-state up-and-comer.  Now Idol’s not even winning the side bet with fellow Moretowner and non-shirter Mike Davies.  Idol is always a threat when he plays, but he’s going to have to play a lot and play well to make a run at first place this year.  And I should also point out that Moretown players don’t even believe in the point series, and Davies and Idol aren’t registered in the GMDGC.  So… could they even win if they wanted to?  How does that work?

7.  James Beaulieu (90/54.17/0/144.17)

So James has a solid 90 and two throwaways.  He’s on the hunt for four more good scores over seven events.  That’s definitely not an easy spot to be in.  Especially when the epic battle at the top of the Pro division unfolds.  But James is a resilient guy, and he throws a good disc, so I’m sure he’ll be fine.  I do expect to see him overcome Davies and Idol in the point series after our next two events (if those guys are really even in the point series).

8.  Mike Habets (100/41.67/0/141.67)

Mike Habets is also in a unique position.  Again.  He was ultra-hot at Pinnacle, when he nailed down the first 100 of the season.  His next score is a throw away and he wasn’t available for scoring in the third event.  On one hand, he needs four more good scores this season.  On the other, those four scores can be added to a 100, which could work nicely.  If he were to come back with a vengeance and win at Gnomes or take down Killington, then he’ll be a serious contender in the division.  If he doesn’t break out of the funk we saw at the Sap Bucket, then he may be treading water in a competitive division.  Treading water with a 100, but treading water still. 

9.  James Sweat (30/62.5/47.06/139.56)

I’m always rooting for James Sweat, but he’s not yet banking any scores that matter.  If he’s not dropping the scores that he’s got now, then he won’t finish top 10.  James could be the perfect late season disc golfer, maybe finding his stride as the summer wears on and he gets to go swimming every day.  (He’s a better disc golfer after he’s gone swimming, just so you know).  I’m not counting him out, but making headway in this division will not be easy.  Let’s see what happens with James after two more events.   

10.  Ian Thurston (70/4.17/47.06/121.23)   

Nope.  It’s not a typo.  That score is a 4.17.  I’ve had grade point averages higher than that.  So needless to say, Ian needs four or five very, very good scores to make some of those mistakes go away.  But he starts with a 70, so he’s not totally out of it, he just needs to set the gearshift for the high gear of his soul.  Right now.  And make some putts.  So, what do you say, Mr. Thurston, is Randolph the place for an old school bust out?  A return to form?

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There you have it.  The current top 10.  Or the current top 8 and 2 guys too cool to register for the point series.  What do you think?  We will see other contenders after our next two events?  Or are we going to see the same names again?