The Green Mountain Point Series is now four events in with six to go on the 2012 season. By next Sunday, the
Point Series will be halfway over. You can still think that the
standings don't matter right now, but you'll be having a harder and
harder time of convincing me of that. So, let's take a look at the
Pro Open Division. You can find the raw data here if you wish.
Current Top 5
Chris Young
Jeff Spring
Jon Moorer
James Beaulieu
Ian Thurston
I know that last time I broke down the
Top 10 Pro's. Right now I only get the impression that five of them are
in the hunt. At least right now. Someone else could come from
farther back in the division with some big performances, but until
that happens these five have the real chance at winning Pro.
1. Chris Young
(90, 95.83, 52.94, 87.5, Total= 326.27)
 |
| Young, flexing it. |
We all know that you'll be needing five
bankable scores to win the Pro Division. The real debate lies in
what kind of score makes for a bankable score. I have to believe
that the winner of Pro will have a 100 or something awfully close,
three or four scores above 80, and maybe a score in the 70's.
Anything less and I really don't think it'll fly.
So, as of now, Chris Young already has
three very, very solid scores. He'll drop the 52.94, but he's in a
position of only needing two scores in the 80's, or maybe a 70 and an
80. Do you think Young Bucks has what it takes to record two more
good scores over 6 remaining tournaments? If I were a betting man,
I'd take that bet. On second thought, I am a betting man. So, if
anyone wants that action, let me know.
For now, I think its clear. The Circle
Three Tarot Cards all point towards a repeat for Chris Young. He's
got that score near 100 (with a 95.83) and he's got two scores above
the mid 80's (with a 90 and an 87.5). A strong performance from
Young at the Killington Classic and he might be taking a victory lap
for the remainder of the season. And with some challenging
tournaments ahead- stops at Killington and Sugarbush come to mind-
that might be the best position of all to be in.
2. Jeff Spring
(70, 41.67, 94.12, 87.5, Total= 293.29)
 |
| Spring |
Jeff Spring, obviously, was the
preseason prediction to win the Pro Division, at least from the
Circle Three blog. The first two stops on tour- Pinnacle and the Sap
Bucket- didn't serve Spring very well. But, he's made a strong
rebound and has two solid scores after Black Falls and Gnomes.
Still, he'll need three more bankable scores over six tournaments.
That's a slightly tougher position than the one Chris Young is
currently in.
I do like Spring's chances at some of
the later stops this summer. I think his game could play well on
Lincoln Peak and at his adoptive home course in Calais. Oh yeah, and
he won Wrightsville last year, so that course obviously suites his
game just fine. Personally, I'd like to see Jeff Spring drop some
hot scores at Killington, but if it doesn't happen, you heard it here
first. Spring has plenty of time. And knowing his perchance for
showing up late, he's probably OK with that.
3. Jon Moorer
(40, 79.17, 76.47, 43.75, Total=
239.39)
 |
| Moorer and the flick. |
First of all, I'm happy to report that
the Circle Three blog is the only place where this poor guy's name
gets spelled correctly. Other websites, forums, and point series
standings, take note.
Other than that, Moorer is having quite
a fine rookie season in Pro. As a matter of fact, I think he's
having the kind of year that anyone debuting in a new division could
hope for. A few times in the cash. Some really stellar tournament
rounds. Third place in the group nearly halfway through the season.
But, is it enough? Or will Moorer make some more waves during the
second half of the season?
His golf seems to be getting better and
better, despite what the numbers look like, so it's certainly
possible. Killington may be the place to start, but I'm not sure if
its the right place for him. He won AM1 at Calais last year, so he's capable of shooting well
there. His long flick bombs can play quite well at Sugarbush and
they won't hurt in Lyndon or at Wrightsville. Moorer could wind up
being the perfect second half disc golfer. If he really wants to win
Pro, that's what he'll have to do, with only two decent scores in the
bank so far.
4. James Beaulieu
(90, 54.17, 0, 87.5, Total= 231.67)
 |
| Beaulieu, launching the boat. |
Props to James for being in the Top 4
and still holding onto a score of zero. And shame on the 17 people
in his division he's beating while holding a score of zero. But, I
shouldn't take anything away from James by talking about other people
in his hard earned Circle Three write up space. Sorry, James.
Anyway, he's working with a 90 and an
87.5. He's behind on Chris Young, which everyone is, and he's behind
on Jeff Spring. However, I would argue that Beaulieu is actually in
a better spot right now than Jon Moorer. Two of the scores that
Beaulieu has will be bankable and Moorer, arguably, doesn't have any.
Not any that meet my criteria, at least. So, despite the rankings,
I think Beaulieu is in a better position than Moorer.
I'm trying to look back at Beaulieu's
scores from last year, to make some comparisons. But most of them
are in the Pro Masters division. So, I don't even know how to make
sense of them. I don't know the conversion rate from Pro Masters to
Pro Open. It doesn't compute. I guess I'll just have to go
with my instincts here.
I like his chances of finishing Top 5
for the season, definitely. I think he can be Top 3. But, I don't
see him winning it. A victory at Killington would certainly change
my feelings, at least a little. Otherwise, I'm not convinced.
5. Ian Thurston
(70, 4.17, 47.06, 87.5, Total= 208.73)
 |
| Thurston, at right. |
Ian Thurston. Thurstonian. I really
do like that this guy is still in the Top 5. I'm probably throwing
my journalistic integrity right out the window here, but if you're
not rooting for a guy like Ian, than you're some kind of maniac. Or
maybe you're competing in his division. Either way, he's a good guy
who deserves to succeed, even if you're playing against him.
Remember that score of 4.17 that he's
carrying from the Sap Bucket and the stink I made about it last time?
Ian said it was some motivation for him before Gnomes, so that's
cool. So let's talk about it some more. The score he got from
Gnomes was an 87.5, which is fantastic. That's actually almost 21
times as many points as the Sap Bucket score. Or, if you subtracted
the Sap Bucket score from the Gnomes score (87.5 – 4.17) he'd
actually still have a bankable score (83.33). So there are some
statistics for you to chew on. Or, some simple math problems for you
to glance over, if you wish.
Back to Ian, though. He's a good guy
who deserves to win. I just don't think this year is the year. By
my count he's working on one bankable score with one on the bubble.
He's going to have some hard work ahead if he wants to make major
jumps in the division of Pros.
Outliers
*Mike Habets,
Jonathan Betts, James Sweat, and Dave Frothingham are the next four
Pros in the standings. Yeah, Dave Frothingham. Remember him? If
you haven't been to money games in a while, then you might not. But,
rest assured, he's still a Pro in Vermont.
*So, Mike
Habets. Got hot at his home course of Pinnacle and scared the Pro
field. Or, scared the Circle Three blog, at least. But, since then
he's cooled off like your favorite swimming hole in October. He's a
good disc golfer, no question. He's just not proving that he's ready
for the prime time in Pro Open. (Not that I'm suggesting he should
move down. God no. I'm just saying he's going to need to really
turn it on to get in this race).
*Jonathan Betts.
As predicted, his schedule is filled with things that aren't disc
golf tournaments. Imagine that? I can't. But, its true. While
you're aimlessly throwing things at other things in the woods, Mr.
Betts is building a legacy. Or a family. Or something like that.
Betts has a 100, so you can't argue with that. But unless he steps
up his attendance in the second half, I doubt its his year either.
*James Sweat.
Tied the course record on his first round at the White River Disc
Golf Course. Then got 13 strokes worse on his second round. What
I'm trying to say is, that you never quite know what you'll get from
Mr. Sweat. But, he plays Sugarbush well and he won the Ams at
Wrightsville last year, so he's not dead yet. Overall, he probably won't be in
line to win the division since he doesn't really have a bankable
score right now.
*Dave
Frothingham. He's played three out of four tournaments but doesn't
have a score that counts right now. He too is unpredictable this year. He
can go from being a non-factor in a tournament to crushing the field
on the following (Wednesday) night. So, who knows what the second
half may hold? I just think that 3rd place may be the
ceiling for him this year, and that's if he works his arse off.
*Final Word:
Late June Circle Three Pro Prediction: Spring/Young/Beaulieu. Yep,
I'm covering both sides of the fence here. I'll take action on Chris
Young to win the division, but I still can't give up on the Year of
the Spring.
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