Late June Pro Break Down

The Green Mountain Point Series is now four events in with six to go on the 2012 season. By next Sunday, the Point Series will be halfway over. You can still think that the standings don't matter right now, but you'll be having a harder and harder time of convincing me of that. So, let's take a look at the Pro Open Division. You can find the raw data here if you wish.

Current Top 5

Chris Young

Jeff Spring

Jon Moorer

James Beaulieu

Ian Thurston

I know that last time I broke down the Top 10 Pro's. Right now I only get the impression that five of them are in the hunt. At least right now. Someone else could come from farther back in the division with some big performances, but until that happens these five have the real chance at winning Pro.

1. Chris Young

(90, 95.83, 52.94, 87.5, Total= 326.27)

Young, flexing it.

We all know that you'll be needing five bankable scores to win the Pro Division. The real debate lies in what kind of score makes for a bankable score. I have to believe that the winner of Pro will have a 100 or something awfully close, three or four scores above 80, and maybe a score in the 70's. Anything less and I really don't think it'll fly.

So, as of now, Chris Young already has three very, very solid scores. He'll drop the 52.94, but he's in a position of only needing two scores in the 80's, or maybe a 70 and an 80. Do you think Young Bucks has what it takes to record two more good scores over 6 remaining tournaments? If I were a betting man, I'd take that bet. On second thought, I am a betting man. So, if anyone wants that action, let me know.

For now, I think its clear. The Circle Three Tarot Cards all point towards a repeat for Chris Young. He's got that score near 100 (with a 95.83) and he's got two scores above the mid 80's (with a 90 and an 87.5). A strong performance from Young at the Killington Classic and he might be taking a victory lap for the remainder of the season. And with some challenging tournaments ahead- stops at Killington and Sugarbush come to mind- that might be the best position of all to be in.

2. Jeff Spring

(70, 41.67, 94.12, 87.5, Total= 293.29)

Spring

Jeff Spring, obviously, was the preseason prediction to win the Pro Division, at least from the Circle Three blog. The first two stops on tour- Pinnacle and the Sap Bucket- didn't serve Spring very well. But, he's made a strong rebound and has two solid scores after Black Falls and Gnomes. Still, he'll need three more bankable scores over six tournaments. That's a slightly tougher position than the one Chris Young is currently in.

I do like Spring's chances at some of the later stops this summer. I think his game could play well on Lincoln Peak and at his adoptive home course in Calais. Oh yeah, and he won Wrightsville last year, so that course obviously suites his game just fine. Personally, I'd like to see Jeff Spring drop some hot scores at Killington, but if it doesn't happen, you heard it here first. Spring has plenty of time. And knowing his perchance for showing up late, he's probably OK with that.

3. Jon Moorer

(40, 79.17, 76.47, 43.75, Total= 239.39)

Moorer and the flick.

First of all, I'm happy to report that the Circle Three blog is the only place where this poor guy's name gets spelled correctly. Other websites, forums, and point series standings, take note.

Other than that, Moorer is having quite a fine rookie season in Pro. As a matter of fact, I think he's having the kind of year that anyone debuting in a new division could hope for. A few times in the cash. Some really stellar tournament rounds. Third place in the group nearly halfway through the season. But, is it enough? Or will Moorer make some more waves during the second half of the season?

His golf seems to be getting better and better, despite what the numbers look like, so it's certainly possible. Killington may be the place to start, but I'm not sure if its the right place for him.  He won AM1 at Calais last year, so he's capable of shooting well there. His long flick bombs can play quite well at Sugarbush and they won't hurt in Lyndon or at Wrightsville. Moorer could wind up being the perfect second half disc golfer. If he really wants to win Pro, that's what he'll have to do, with only two decent scores in the bank so far.

4. James Beaulieu

(90, 54.17, 0, 87.5, Total= 231.67)

Beaulieu, launching the boat.

Props to James for being in the Top 4 and still holding onto a score of zero. And shame on the 17 people in his division he's beating while holding a score of zero. But, I shouldn't take anything away from James by talking about other people in his hard earned Circle Three write up space. Sorry, James.

Anyway, he's working with a 90 and an 87.5. He's behind on Chris Young, which everyone is, and he's behind on Jeff Spring. However, I would argue that Beaulieu is actually in a better spot right now than Jon Moorer. Two of the scores that Beaulieu has will be bankable and Moorer, arguably, doesn't have any. Not any that meet my criteria, at least. So, despite the rankings, I think Beaulieu is in a better position than Moorer.

I'm trying to look back at Beaulieu's scores from last year, to make some comparisons. But most of them are in the Pro Masters division. So, I don't even know how to make sense of them. I don't know the conversion rate from Pro Masters to Pro Open. It doesn't compute. I guess I'll just have to go with my instincts here.

I like his chances of finishing Top 5 for the season, definitely. I think he can be Top 3. But, I don't see him winning it. A victory at Killington would certainly change my feelings, at least a little. Otherwise, I'm not convinced.

5. Ian Thurston

(70, 4.17, 47.06, 87.5, Total= 208.73)

Thurston, at right.

Ian Thurston. Thurstonian. I really do like that this guy is still in the Top 5. I'm probably throwing my journalistic integrity right out the window here, but if you're not rooting for a guy like Ian, than you're some kind of maniac. Or maybe you're competing in his division. Either way, he's a good guy who deserves to succeed, even if you're playing against him.

Remember that score of 4.17 that he's carrying from the Sap Bucket and the stink I made about it last time? Ian said it was some motivation for him before Gnomes, so that's cool. So let's talk about it some more. The score he got from Gnomes was an 87.5, which is fantastic. That's actually almost 21 times as many points as the Sap Bucket score. Or, if you subtracted the Sap Bucket score from the Gnomes score (87.5 – 4.17) he'd actually still have a bankable score (83.33). So there are some statistics for you to chew on. Or, some simple math problems for you to glance over, if you wish.

Back to Ian, though. He's a good guy who deserves to win. I just don't think this year is the year. By my count he's working on one bankable score with one on the bubble. He's going to have some hard work ahead if he wants to make major jumps in the division of Pros.

Outliers

*Mike Habets, Jonathan Betts, James Sweat, and Dave Frothingham are the next four Pros in the standings. Yeah, Dave Frothingham. Remember him? If you haven't been to money games in a while, then you might not. But, rest assured, he's still a Pro in Vermont.

*So, Mike Habets. Got hot at his home course of Pinnacle and scared the Pro field. Or, scared the Circle Three blog, at least. But, since then he's cooled off like your favorite swimming hole in October. He's a good disc golfer, no question. He's just not proving that he's ready for the prime time in Pro Open. (Not that I'm suggesting he should move down. God no. I'm just saying he's going to need to really turn it on to get in this race).

*Jonathan Betts. As predicted, his schedule is filled with things that aren't disc golf tournaments. Imagine that? I can't. But, its true. While you're aimlessly throwing things at other things in the woods, Mr. Betts is building a legacy. Or a family. Or something like that. Betts has a 100, so you can't argue with that. But unless he steps up his attendance in the second half, I doubt its his year either.

*James Sweat. Tied the course record on his first round at the White River Disc Golf Course. Then got 13 strokes worse on his second round. What I'm trying to say is, that you never quite know what you'll get from Mr. Sweat. But, he plays Sugarbush well and he won the Ams at Wrightsville last year, so he's not dead yet. Overall, he probably won't be in line to win the division since he doesn't really have a bankable score right now.

*Dave Frothingham. He's played three out of four tournaments but doesn't have a score that counts right now. He too is unpredictable this year. He can go from being a non-factor in a tournament to crushing the field on the following (Wednesday) night. So, who knows what the second half may hold? I just think that 3^rd place may be the ceiling for him this year, and that's if he works his arse off.

*Final Word: Late June Circle Three Pro Prediction: Spring/Young/Beaulieu. Yep, I'm covering both sides of the fence here. I'll take action on Chris Young to win the division, but I still can't give up on the Year of the Spring.   

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Looking Ahead: Gnomes and Killington

Player	Pinnacle	Sap Bucket X	Black Falls VI	Current Total
Chris Young	90	95.83	52.94	238.77
Jeff Spring	70	41.67	94.12	205.79
Jon Moorer	40	79.17	76.47	195.64
Jonathan Betts	0	100	76.47	176.47
Mike Davies	0	87.5	76.47	163.97
Matt Idol	0	66.67	82.35	149.02
James Beaulieu	90	54.17	0	144.17
Mike Habets	100	41.67	0	141.67
James Sweat	30	62.5	47.06	139.56
Ian Thurston	70	4.17	47.06	121.23

To me, the tournament season seems pretty young.  But, we’ve got three events out of the way with seven to go.  So, I guess the points and the rankings are starting to mean something.  There are still some funky numbers out there, like players in the top six still counting scores of zero.  Things will level out eventually, but being in first place now could still mean something later.

And Circle Three has gotten into the prediction game so it’s time to keep things rolling and look ahead.  By the time of Gnomes Challenge on June 23, there will have been 21 days off since Black Falls VI.  Then 8 days after Gnomes we’ll all head to Killington for the Classic.  By July 1^st, we’ll be halfway through the season.  And then the standings will really mean something. 

Today I’ll break down the current top 10 in Pro Open.  When I list players I’ll also list their scores.  It’ll read: (Pinnacle/Sap Bucket/Black Falls//Current Total). 

1.  Chris Young (90/95.83/52.94/238.77)

Young Bucks on the top of the point series is starting to sound like old news.  And I’m not taking anything away from him, but look what he’s done to us.  We now expect him to be up top this time of year.  So far, Young has recorded two really solid scores and has one throwaway.  I like his chances right now, already grabbing 2 meaningful scores and therefore only needing 3 more good scores.  I still think he needs a 100 in there and getting it sometime in the next two events would really make his opponents scared.  Is the tournament that he’s directing the place to do it?  That kind of thing is a tall order and last year he finished fourth at Gnomes, so I’m not convinced.  Young is the reigning champ at Killington, so we could see big things there.

2.  Jeff Spring (70/41.67/94.12/205.77)

Right this second, Young has the advantage on Jeff Spring.  Where the Bucks has two 90’s, Spring’s only got one.  His score of 41.67 will be a throw away and that leaves him with one other mediocre score.  So he’s got some work to do.  But the time is near.  He too needs a 100 in order to win the division and I think he needs it soon.  In 2011, Spring took 2^nd at Gnomes to out-of-towner Joe Yaskis and was 4^th at Killington.  If we’re still going to see the Year of the Spring prediction come true, then I think Spring is in a must win situation.  At the least, he’s in need of four good scores over the next seven tournaments, and that won’t happen easily. 

 

3.  Jon Moorer (40/79.17/76.47/195.64)

Jon Moorer’s rookie Pro season is off to a solid start.  Overall, I think he’s only rocking two mediocre scores and has a throwaway, but still, he’s sitting in 3^rd place in his first season.  That’s the kind of thing that is going to encourage other players to move up, which is ultimately good for the sport.  But Jon needs to start recording some 90’s if he wants to stay up high in the standings.  Gnomes may be a tough place for him to do it, but I like his odds at Killington.  Not to mention, if he manages to walk out of the next two events with two good scores, he’ll be on very solid ground in the division.

4.  Jonathan Betts (0/100/76.47/176.47)

See, this is where it gets really interesting.  Betts is in 4^th place, but he’s only recorded two scores.  He does have the very elusive, very important 100.  If and when things get tight at the end of the season, then 100’s will separate first and second place.  And Johnny has one of those hundreds.  The 76.47 he holds is a bit mediocre, but it may play as a fifth score if he needs it to.  That means Johnny has seven more tournaments to grab three solid scores (like high 80’s or 90’s) and I think I like those odds.  Not that I’m a betting man, but if I were, I’d be thinking about laying down some Betts.  Maybe a Betts/Young exacta for the season finish.  Or how about a Betts/Young/Spring trifecta?

5.  Mike Davies (0/87.5/76.47/163.97)

Hmm.  No score, solid score, mediocre score.  I’m not sure where that leaves Mike Davies.  I like the 87.5 a lot.  The 76.47 is mediocre, or maybe a little better, so that may help him out.  But I’m not convinced yet.  I think Davies is on the fence here.  Some good scores at the next two events, if he plays them both, and we’ll be talking.  Otherwise, I think Mike is in danger of falling out of the top 10.    

6.  Matt Idol (0/66.67/82.35/149.02)

Earlier this year I thought Matt Idol was going to roll into town and save Vermont from an out-of-state up-and-comer.  Now Idol’s not even winning the side bet with fellow Moretowner and non-shirter Mike Davies.  Idol is always a threat when he plays, but he’s going to have to play a lot and play well to make a run at first place this year.  And I should also point out that Moretown players don’t even believe in the point series, and Davies and Idol aren’t registered in the GMDGC.  So… could they even win if they wanted to?  How does that work?

7.  James Beaulieu (90/54.17/0/144.17)

So James has a solid 90 and two throwaways.  He’s on the hunt for four more good scores over seven events.  That’s definitely not an easy spot to be in.  Especially when the epic battle at the top of the Pro division unfolds.  But James is a resilient guy, and he throws a good disc, so I’m sure he’ll be fine.  I do expect to see him overcome Davies and Idol in the point series after our next two events (if those guys are really even in the point series).

8.  Mike Habets (100/41.67/0/141.67)

Mike Habets is also in a unique position.  Again.  He was ultra-hot at Pinnacle, when he nailed down the first 100 of the season.  His next score is a throw away and he wasn’t available for scoring in the third event.  On one hand, he needs four more good scores this season.  On the other, those four scores can be added to a 100, which could work nicely.  If he were to come back with a vengeance and win at Gnomes or take down Killington, then he’ll be a serious contender in the division.  If he doesn’t break out of the funk we saw at the Sap Bucket, then he may be treading water in a competitive division.  Treading water with a 100, but treading water still. 

9.  James Sweat (30/62.5/47.06/139.56)

I’m always rooting for James Sweat, but he’s not yet banking any scores that matter.  If he’s not dropping the scores that he’s got now, then he won’t finish top 10.  James could be the perfect late season disc golfer, maybe finding his stride as the summer wears on and he gets to go swimming every day.  (He’s a better disc golfer after he’s gone swimming, just so you know).  I’m not counting him out, but making headway in this division will not be easy.  Let’s see what happens with James after two more events.   

10.  Ian Thurston (70/4.17/47.06/121.23)   

Nope.  It’s not a typo.  That score is a 4.17.  I’ve had grade point averages higher than that.  So needless to say, Ian needs four or five very, very good scores to make some of those mistakes go away.  But he starts with a 70, so he’s not totally out of it, he just needs to set the gearshift for the high gear of his soul.  Right now.  And make some putts.  So, what do you say, Mr. Thurston, is Randolph the place for an old school bust out?  A return to form?

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There you have it.  The current top 10.  Or the current top 8 and 2 guys too cool to register for the point series.  What do you think?  We will see other contenders after our next two events?  Or are we going to see the same names again?